The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Amazon.com Review

Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below. Guest Reviewer: Chris AndersonChris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it. Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt. The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia. Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan." In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson

Product Details

  • Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Publication Date: 2007-04-17
  • Publisher: Random House
  • Product Group: Book
  • Manufacturer: Random House
  • Binding: Hardcover, 366 pages
  • Package Dimensions:
    • Dimensions: 940L x 620W x 140H
    • Weight: 145
  • List Price: $28.00
  • ISBN: 1400063515
  • ASIN: 1400063515

Buying Options

Sold by veronicas_crystals: Usually ships in 1-2 business days

Customer Reviews

Average Amazon User Rating: 3.5 stars

5 stars Fascinating 2010-07-10

Reviewer: Thomas Grover

This is a book that can challenge the way you view the world, your own life, and more than a few of life's basic and irrefutable "laws". If you have an open mind, and are naturally cynical and skeptical you will love this book. Taleb ruthlessly exposes the clay feet of Academics, Economists, Stock Market Prognosticators, and the Nobel Prize. If you happen to be a proponent of any of the above, you will hate this book.

5 stars A difficult read, but worth it 2010-07-07

Reviewer: foiegras

Skimming through the most recent 3 pages of reviews on this book, it is pretty obvious that there is a love-hate relationship that readers have with this book.

Trying not to be too elitist, I think you need a certain level of intelligence and education to even understand the depths of what the writer is getting at.

Is the book 30 or 40% too long? Absolutely. Could it have benefited from a good editor? Without question. Can an intelligent reader who is willing to look beyond all of that gain some life-altering knowledge from slogging through it?

Undoubtedly.

2 stars There might be a good essay in this turd, somewhere. 2010-07-05

Reviewer: Tyson Tate

I'm tiring of this book quickly. Simple ideas are expanded into entire sections that add no illumination that a simple paragraph could convey. Nassim is obsessed with using large words when a simpler, clearer word would do twice as well. Many sentences should have been cut out. For example:

"I said that I will get into a more thorough examination in Part Three, so let us focus on epistemology for now and see how the distinction affects our knowledge."

What the hell is that? That offers absolutely no new information and doesn't clarify anything.

Nassim also loves using the same, pointless cliché sentence structures over and over. For instance, this cliché is used at least three times in the first 38 pages:

"X implies Y or maybe X doesn't imply Y!"

Wow, Nassim. Golf clap for you. "Maybe Fruit Loops are delicious. Or maybe they aren't! SO AMAZING AND CONFOUNDING."

What a piece of junk. I hate you, Nassim. I paid money for this over-wrought slab of ego tripping.

5 stars Funny, sarcastic, irreverent, overwritten, and over-the-top 2010-07-04

Reviewer: Stephen Armstrong

Despite my title for this review, I enjoyed the book. In the land of Katrina, the Dustbowl, LTCM, and BP oil spills, the impact of rare events is extraordinary. But like nearly everything I have read from people educated in business schools, the writing is breathlessly over-the-top, as though he were saying something profoundly and desperately new. The content is not new; what is new is the author's style, which includes a large dose of funny sarcasm and irreverence toward conventional wisdom. A corollary of the author's sarcasm is, however, that you are a pedant, philistine, or ignoramus if you do not believe as he does; that his own intelligence is a highly improbable event; or that disasters won't happen by chance. In this respect, he is an Algernon of earnest economists and intellectuals--witty, intelligent, effete, humorous, and harmless.

Therefore, this book is enjoyable reading, but only if you can feel a healthy skepticism about its profundity.

1 stars Tortuous 2010-07-02

Reviewer: Simbo

I made a genuine effort to get all the way through this book, but life is too short to waste on such vacuity. It's strange that the author, being so intelligent and well-read (as he never tires of telling us) didn't realize that the sum of his work has been merely to lift some ideas that have been around for millennia, for example, in Buddhist thought, and rebrand them with management buzz words. Or maybe he did.

Worse, his exploration of these ideas, which he claims as his own, fails to rise above the level of platitude. Endlessly repeated platitude.

Verbose and unbearably pompous, Taleb takes close to 500 pages to say `man doesn't understand the universe' (with the exception of himself, naturally).

The book has merit as an autobiography - a portrait of the type of hubris that rules world financial markets. In this respect, a different title would be more appropriate: `Look How Clever I Am.'